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This study aims to analyze the convergence of environmental degradation clubs in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In addition, this study also analyzes the influence of renewable energy and foreign direct investment (FDI) on each club as an intervention to change the convergence pattern in each club.

This study analyzes the club convergence of environmental degradation in an effort to find out the distribution of environmental degradation reduction policies. This study uses club convergence with the Phillips and Sul (PS) convergence methodology because it considers multiple steady-states and is robust. This study uses annual panel data from 1998 to 2020 and ASEAN country units with ecological footprints as proxies for environmental degradation. After obtaining the club results, the analysis continued by analyzing the impact of renewable energy and FDI on each club using panel data regression and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology model specification.

Based on club convergence, ASEAN countries can be grouped into three clubs with two divergent countries. Club 1 has an increasing pattern of environmental degradation, while Club 2 and Club 3 show no increase. Club 1 can primarily apply renewable energy to reduce environmental degradation, while Club 2 requires more FDI. The authors expect policymakers to take into account the clubs established to formulate collaborative policies among countries. The result that FDI reduces environmental degradation in this study is in line with the pollution halo hypothesis. This study also found that population has a significant effect on environmental degradation, so policies to regulate population need to be considered. On the other hand, increasing income has no effect on reducing environmental degradation. Therefore, the use of renewable energy and FDI toward green investment is expected to intensify within ASEAN countries to reduce environmental degradation.

This research is by far the first to apply PS Club convergence to environmental degradation in ASEAN. In addition, this study is also the first to analyze the influence of renewable energy and FDI on each club formed, considering the need for renewable energy use that has not been maximized in ASEAN.

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of the industrial sector, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption in Indonesia on the ecological footprint from 1990 to 2020 in the short and long term.

This paper uses vector error correction model (VECM) analysis to examine the relationship in the short and long term. In addition, the impulse response function is used to enable future forecasts up to 2060 of the ecological footprint as a measure of environmental degradation caused by changes or shocks in industrial value-added, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption. Furthermore, forecast error decomposition of variance (FEVD) analysis is carried out to predict the percentage contribution of each variable’s variance to changes in a specific variable. Granger causality testing is used to enhance the analysis outcomes within the framework of VECM.

Using VECM analysis, the speed of adjustment for environmental damage is quite high in the short term, at 246%. This finding suggests that when there is a short-term imbalance in industrial value-added, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption, the ecological footprint experiences a very rapid adjustment, at 246%, to move towards long-term balance. Then, in the long term, the ecological footprint in Indonesia is most influenced by nonrenewable energy consumption. This is also confirmed by the Granger causality test and the results of FEVD, which show that the contribution of nonrenewable energy consumption will be 10.207% in 2060 and will be the main contributor to the ecological footprint in the coming years to achieve net-zero emissions in 2060. In the long run, renewable energy consumption has a negative effect on the ecological footprint, whereas industrial value-added and nonrenewable energy consumption have a positive effect.

For the first time, value added from the industrial sector is being used alongside renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption to measure Indonesia’s ecological footprint. The primary cause of Indonesia’s alarming environmental degradation is the industrial sector, which acts as the driving force behind this issue. Consequently, this contribution is expected to inform the policy implications required to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2060, aligned with the G20 countries’ Bali agreement of 2022.